The decline in S&P is corrective.....

 If you are using elliott waves you know that impulsive waves consist of 5 waves. Recent movement in S&P is a clear 3 wave move. I cannot count 5 waves down because they are not there. I try not to be biased and see 5 waves where they are not. This doesn't mean that the index cannot go lower. As mentioned yesterday, if 1398 is broken, the road is open to revisit 1380 level.

Important support is found in 1400 area with 1398 low signalling the possibility to see 1380 if support broken. However the bigger picture is more bullish to me than bearish. I don't think the market reached 1420 just to make a 4 point higher high. Tomorrow Jackson Hole speech is at the centre of attention and I think the market will pick up  volatility and start a new upward trend at the beginning of next week.

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Would you buy something that is getting scarce?

COCOA is something that will be featured many times in future posts. For now I just want to make an small introduction to my first post regarding this commodity. 

My long term view is extremely bullish for COCOA as long as prices stay above 2000$ per Metric Ton (MT). I target 3000$ for short to medium term. For the time being 2400$ is the first important support.

You could get an idea of what is going on in the cocoa market by checking the following links.

 http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/features/chocolate-worth-its-weight-in-gold-2127874.html

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=africa-grows-too-hot-to-grow-chocolate

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1351066/Will-chocolate-drought-World-s-supply-sustainable-cocoa-run-2014.html#ixzz1CMCLQODv

The trading stance that one should follow is definitely bullish. Any price pullback should be considered as a buy opportunity. However patience is needed as this move is still at its starting point and I prefer adding to my position as prices rise and break resistances or near suport levels. Always manage your risks and do not put all eggs in one basket.

Thank you for reading this post. If you want help with trading or have a question don't hesitate to contact me.

Trading levels to watch in S&P and DJIA

Both S&P and DJIA as depicted in the charts have made 3 waves down from recent highs.  If the lows are broken, both indices will most probably decline towards 12800(DJIA) and 1380(S&P). 

This could just be wave A. The upward move could be wave B and we now are expecting wave C that could coincide with the Jackson Hole speech of Bernanke.

Therefore 1398 (S&P) and 13027 (DJIA) are important supports that could work as a stop-reverse. In the case that the 3 wave correction has ended at the above mentioned support levels, a new upward move is ready to start and Friday's speech at Jackson Hole could  be the reason for the markets to rally. 

If however the markets slide sideways close to the resistance levels (13176 DJIA-1416 S&P) one could try and sell short with those levels as a stop reverse.

GDP figures are being announced before open and could provide volatility in the futures market. Taking action before the announcement should be protected with stop loss orders.

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

EURUSD inside upward channel

 EURUSD is trending upwards within our red channel. The move still looks corrective, with those overlapping waves as the main characteristic. The move could unfold into an impulsive wave but I feel it is more possible for the bigger downtrend to resume. The pair could try and test the lower red channel support just below 1,24. If this upward move continues to have overlapping waves it could top around 1,2650-1,27.

Taking a closer look at the 30m chart, we can observe that all the upward moves look and feel impulsive, whereas the down moves are overlapping and with corrective form. As mentioned above this move inside the red channel could become a larger impulsive upward wave. But still it is not one. Therefore we have to be mindful of the bigger downtrend that can resume any day now. 

If you need more info or help with trading this pair don't hesitate to contact me. Again thank you for reading my thoughts.

S&P targets 1500

S&P despite the European debt crisis and many pessimistic reports from big investment banks, has managed to hold support and rally to new highs for the last 4 months. 1422 level was broken but not held. A quick correction towards 1400 may have given the index enough power to resume this upward move. Our simple EMA trigger method has been LONG since 1350. As mentioned at late July, many things would show that an imminent large decline is soon to come, but the market was not breaking any support. And if market is at its support, we do only one thing...buy!! Volatility was high but staying above our trigger was making the bearish scenario weaker each day.

 I mentioned several times that after August 1st volatility would pick up and the market would start a new move. I was giving more chances to a decline, but since support levels held, the market had only one way to go. After a  the decline at 1354 low, where EMA stayed unbroken, market started a move to new highs. For me this move is not fake and the new highs are still to come. My view is that after breaking important highs like 1422 was, the market usually makes at least 50 points higher and not only a 10 point newer high. Stops were trigger at 1422 and after the correction to 1400 I think the market is ready to retest the 1420-30 area.

 In the 60m chart S&P has clearly made 3 waves downwards. A move above 1416 would confirm that the decline from 1426,68 is corrective. I expect the market to make a move towards 1470. Support lies at 1398 and 1390. At this point QE3 expectations are driving the market higher. Comments by officials, against such an action, would be the causation of a downward correction. For now chances are that we are heading higher above 1430.

Thank you for taking the time to read my posts.

Gold and Silver test resistance levels.

 Gold and Silver charts are very similar. Both are trying to break out of the sideways triangle and are testing my last resistance level. If Gold can hold above 1670$ and Silver above 32$ the new upward trend will be confirmed. 

It is important that support has been held and prices look like they are moving in an impulsive form. Silver has been slower in its rise but I think will pick up eventually. My first choice as mentioned several times before is Gold. Targets for gold are near the all time high at least, if not higher. Always keep an eye on USD as weakness will help prices rise. Dollar strength might put pressure in these metals. So keep an eye out for volatility there too. 

For more info and help on how to trade gold, don't hesitate to contact me. Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

TRADING2DAY is PROFITABLE RISK TAKING

Good day to all,

I would like to take the opportunity to introduce you to our new name 'Trading2day'. This is not just a name change but the start of bigger changes in the blog itself and what I can offer to followers. I plan to create a new website. If all goes according to plan, in a couple of months a new fully functional and independent site (www.trading2day.com) will be the continuation of this blog. Members will have special privileges and intraday analysis to help them with day to day trading. More information will be available while we get close to the date that the new site will be functional. Thank you all for your support and I hope you are satisfied with my analysis.

Regards

Alexandros

Has GBPUSD finished its upward move?

One of my blog followers wanted my view on GBPUSD. So I will share with you today just a few words for this pair.

From the elliott wave perspective, the pair is close or at the end of its upward correction. It has reached the 61,8% retracement after the impulsive move from 1,63 to 1,52 area. The upward correction is clearly in 3 waves and does not look impulsive. This move could already be over. A trend change downwards is expected soon. A move above 1,61 would diminish chances for the bearish scenario. Short term trend is upward but with a lot of possibility to end if not already ended. Things to watch: Top is imminent. Five lower degree waves down could be the first sign of trend change. 

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts. If you need further assistance with trading or just want to comment please don't hesitate to contact me.

GOLD at the start of a new upward move?

Gold is finally starting to show some energy and I believe we are at the start of a new upward move. Double top at 1630$ has been broken. The downward trend channel has also been broken. I believe the large triangle has been completed and a new upward wave begins. As mentioned many times before at previous posts, bulls should use 1525$ as the ultimate stop for their positions. More cautious traders were expecting for the prices to break upwards. Resistance lies now at 1660$. This level represents the connection between the all time highs and wave D. If this level is also broken, then gold will surely test 1750$-1800$. Concluding our view is bullish. Support at 1610$ and 1580$ should hold. Prices should unfold upwards soon. If prices stall and do not unfold in an impulsive way, then bulls should be very strict with their stop levels and risk management as another last dive towards 1550$ could make a final pull back test. I favor though the continuation of the rise above 1650$ and not the correction towards 1550$.

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

EURUSD target achieved. Downtrend resumes?

Updating the prices in an older chart for EURUSD, we see that our target has been achieved as expected in our previous blog post (http://profitablerisktaking.blogspot.gr/2012/08/upward-correction-not-over-in-eurusd.html).

Now that EURUSD has found resistance in the upper pitchfork downward sloping line, the market has finished a 3 wave correction. Trend will most probably resume downwards with targets below 1,20. For this scenario to hold, we need to see support levels break. First support at 1,2133 and the middle pitchfork support a bit lower. Next support is at July low at 1,2040. The expected decline should have an impulsive pattern in order for this bearish scenario to come true. For bulls to have a chance, EURUSD must not break 1,2133 although it can retrace the last upward move towards 1,2250 (61,8%). If the decline looks corrective then bulls should be ready to reenter in order to prepare for a new upward move. I favor the bearish scenario as it is more possible in my opinion. Stop loss at 1,2450 for any short position opened is my strategy now.

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

AAPL with an eye on the upcoming iPhone5

Last time I posted an analysis on AAPL the stock was at 570$ after the earnings miss. I then mentioned the extremely important support level that the stock was at the time. Many of my blog followers took advantage of this analysis and now they ride this upward trend having raised the stop level according to their risk tolerance.

Technically speaking, the rise from 522.18$ still looks choppy with overlapping waves. Similar to the major US indices. April highs are being tested and bears are struggling in the corner. This pattern has the potential to unfold to a bigger upward move. Support levels on a daily basis are found at the 600$ level and at the 580$ level. Resistance is the previous high at 644$.

As shown in the 60 minute chart above AAPL is possible to make a pull back towards the middle Keltner channel support near 615$ or even 610$. The rise from 570$ looks impulsive. The possible wave counts are suggesting that it is very possible the rise from 570$ is over and a correction is due. So be careful with your long positions. For more help on how to trade this stock profitable, don't hesitate to contact me.

Thank you  for reading my post.

Bulls VS Bears..the battle continues....(S&P)

Can't say that the sharp pull back on Friday was something I was expecting, but since S&P is not breaking important support levels, then I will not put all my money in short positions. The market topped as expected at the area of 1390 and made a sharp decline towards 1355 still inside our upward trading range channel. A new high at 1394.16 has not changed anything to our strategy. The rise still looks choppy but at least the market does not fall. Unless support levels are broken, be on high alert of strong pull backs. 1354 is now a level that bulls don't want to break. It is not as important as 1325, but if broken could accelerate a decline below 1325.

Taking a look at the weekly charts, the index looks like it can hold its  support levels. The big pitchfork still holds prices in with an upward angle but with lots of volatility. The lower pitchfork support if broken could be another bearish sign. If it holds, the market can make new highs towards 1500.

Our simple EMA system also confirms this potential bullish view that 1500 could be achieved by the end of the year. It is a lagging indicator, but I always take it under serious consideration when trying to forecast large moves. Combined with elliott waves is a very usefull indicator.

If you want help and more in depth analysis for trading this index, don't hesitate to contact me. Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Upward correction not over in EURUSD

 I focus today in EURUD. Volatility will surely pick up during Draghi's speach but I favor the upside. As depicted in the chart I see 5 waves followed by 3 counter waves complete. According to wave theory another 5 wave pattern should follow the trend of the first 5 waves. The intermediate high at 1,2337 could prove my first resistance that if broken the pair could test 1,24. I could try and pick a bottom at these levels with 1,22 as a stop. That depends on how much risk anyone is willing to take. Another low below 1,22 could still happen in case the  downward correction is more complex.

Zooming out the chart we can see that the pair is above the middle pitchfork support and could test the upper pitchfork resistance at 1,25. With the resistance having  a downward slope, the pair could reach 1,2450.

Last chance for Greek stocks!!!

 Greece has been in the spotlight in recent months for all the negative reasons surrounding the european debt crisis. Greek stocks have plummeted during the past 3 years and prices have dropped to all time low levels for most stocks. So what now with the stocks? They will move even lower or sky rocket if a solution is found for european debt crisis.

From an elliott wave perspective the Athens General Index could have finished its corrective decline. If our wave count is correct, the market is expected to make a big upward move. This could be part of a bigger correction or even better the start of a new uptrend.

 Both Alpha Bank and National Bank of Greece show ealry signs that an upward movement might be close. The strength and size of this move could determine the future course of prices. A trend change or a larger degree correction?

What is important now for traders is the possibility for this market to outperform and even give more than 100% profits. Prices are some much pressured like a metal spring that will burst upwards when pressure is lifted. Stop levels are very close and potential targets are very high. So why not take a chance following a prudent strategy in order to enter this market?

If you want more info on how to trade in greek stocks and what strategy to follow don't hesitate to mail me. Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

Time has come to start a new trend

We have witnessed for almost two months now a sideways movement in S&P and DJIA. The markets have retraced more than 61.8% of the April-May decline and I think August will be a very important month for the determination of our next targets.

As mentioned many times before in our analysis in this blog, the rise from early June is overlapping and has no clear impulsive characteristic. August 1st was our marked date for a change in trend. Our most probable scenario remains the expected decline to new lows. However market intervention by government officials in Europe and in the US might avert such decline. Even if the market is to continue higher, a downward correction towards the lower channel support, as depicted in both charts is expected. This overlapping  structure from early June could unfold into an impulsive upward wave, but the chances are that it is only a correction and that the downtrend from April-May will resume in August. 

Two days ago when DJIA was reaching 13000 and S&P 1385 I was posting my doubts that this rally will continue. Both markets seem like the have been rejected at their resistances and are pulling back down. I think August 1st will be a day that will provide us with the necessary info to as to where the market is heading and if bears will prevail as expected by our preferred scenario. Either way traders should always respect the resistance and support levels and use them as stop reverse triggers.

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts and feel free to comment.